switch everyone to their winter gear, first.
Then, if we have light, sight which side of the mountain SPIKE'S smoke-plume is from, and how far up we are from a similar-sized mountain. from there it's high-school trigonometry to figure out how much higher we have to go, and if we're on the right side of the mountain. TWILIGHT said she had posted GUARDS here before. We should have passed or be at a TRAIL MARKER. That might tell us if we can cut off the WAGON by taking the other path.